Analysis Venezia – Fiorentina (Serie A)

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Serie A · May 12, 2025

Venezia

2:1

Fiorentina

1X2 prediction

confidence 54/100

actual 1

27%

31%

42%

1 27%X 31%2 42%

⚡ Value detected on 2 (edge +19.0% vs market)

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

BTTS yes

39%

Expected goals

0.6996 - 1.3998

More markets

Double chance

1X (home/draw)58%

12 (home/away)69%

X2 (draw/away)73%

Goals (Over/Under)

Over 1.563%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.516%

Clean sheet

Venezia25%

Fiorentina50%

Why this prediction?

Attaque vs défense

Venezia attaque 0.65 face à une défense 0.84 ; Fiorentina attaque 1.17 face à 1.03.

Buts attendus (λ)

0.6996 - 1.3998

Forme (5 derniers, pts)

Venezia 6/15 · Fiorentina 8/15

Accord avec le marché

⚠ Divergence notable avec le marché (0.038) — prudence.

Strengths — Venezia: att 0.65 / def 1.03 · Fiorentina: att 1.17 / def 0.84

Recent form (last 5)

Venezia

DWDLD

Fiorentina

DDWWL

Market odds

football-data — 2.72 / 3.14 / 2.88

Likely scores

0-1 · 16.0%

0-0 · 13.5%

1-1 · 13.2%

0-2 · 12.0%

1-2 · 8.4%

Head-to-head

1Venezia

1draws

1Fiorentina

3 meetings

Avg goals · 0.7

BTTS yes · 0%

Over 2.5 · 0%

Aug 25, 24Fiorentina0-0Venezia

Apr 16, 22Fiorentina1-0Venezia

Oct 18, 21Venezia1-0Fiorentina

ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.

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