Predify
Serie A · April 30, 2023
1X2 prediction
confidence 61/100
✓ correct
63%
23%
14%
1 63%X 23%2 14%
⚡ Value detected on X (edge +7.8% vs market)
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS yes
44%
Expected goals
1.7729 - 0.7296
More markets
Double chance
1X (home/draw)86%
12 (home/away)77%
X2 (draw/away)37%
Goals (Over/Under)
Over 1.572%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.524%
Clean sheet
Fiorentina48%
Sampdoria17%
Why this prediction?
Attaque vs défense
Fiorentina attaque 1.02 face à une défense 1.31 ; Sampdoria attaque 0.69 face à 0.92.
Buts attendus (λ)
1.7729 - 0.7296
Forme (5 derniers, pts)
Fiorentina 8/15 · Sampdoria 5/15
Accord avec le marché
Modèle aligné sur les cotes (divergence 0.0107).
Strengths — Fiorentina: att 1.02 / def 0.92 · Sampdoria: att 0.69 / def 1.31
Recent form (last 5)
FiorentinaWWDDL
S Sampdoria
WLLDD
Market odds
football-data — 1.34 / 5.71 / 9.5
Likely scores
1-0 · 13.5%
2-0 · 12.9%
1-1 · 11.7%
2-1 · 9.4%
0-0 · 9.3%
Head-to-head
2Fiorentina
0draws
1Sampdoria
3 meetings
Avg goals · 3.7
BTTS yes · 67%
Over 2.5 · 67%
ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.
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