Predify
1X2 prediction
confidence 54/100
actual X
40%
28%
32%
1 40%X 28%2 32%
Match preview
Lille face Marseille in the Ligue 1, May 04, 2025 — and the model calls it tight: 40% home, 28% draw, 32% away. Over their last five, Lille collected 12/15 points to Marseille's 9/15. Goals look likely: Over 2.5 is rated 59% and both teams to score 62%. Remember: these are probabilities, not certainties — a home win is the lean, never a lock. 18+, gamble responsibly.
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
BTTS yes
62%
Expected goals
1.6592 - 1.3822
More markets
Double chance
1X (home/draw)68%
12 (home/away)72%
X2 (draw/away)60%
Goals (Over/Under)
Over 1.582%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.536%
Clean sheet
Lille25%
Marseille19%
Why this prediction?
Attaque vs défense
Lille attaque 1.07 face à une défense 1.00 ; Marseille attaque 1.39 face à 0.71.
Buts attendus (λ)
1.6592 - 1.3822
Forme (5 derniers, pts)
Lille 12/15 · Marseille 9/15
Accord avec le marché
Modèle aligné sur les cotes (divergence 0.0009).
Strengths — Lille: att 1.07 / def 0.71 · Marseille: att 1.39 / def 1.00
Recent form (last 5)
Market odds
football-data — 2.44 / 3.4 / 3.1
Likely scores
1-1 · 12.0%
2-1 · 9.1%
1-2 · 7.6%
1-0 · 6.8%
2-0 · 6.6%
Head-to-head
2Lille
2draws
1Marseille
5 meetings
Avg goals · 2.4
BTTS yes · 80%
Over 2.5 · 60%
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