Analysis Marseille – Montpellier (Ligue 1)

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Ligue 1 · April 19, 2025

Marseille

5:1MMontpellier

1X2 prediction

confidence 68/100

✓ correct

75%

16%

1 75%X 16%2 9%

⚡ Value detected on X (edge +5.2% vs market)

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

BTTS yes

46%

Expected goals

2.5035 - 0.6856

More markets

Double chance

1X (home/draw)91%

12 (home/away)84%

X2 (draw/away)25%

Goals (Over/Under)

Over 1.583%

Over 2.562%

Over 3.540%

Clean sheet

Marseille50%

Montpellier8%

Why this prediction?

Attaque vs défense

Marseille attaque 1.19 face à une défense 1.37 ; Montpellier attaque 0.47 face à 1.03.

Buts attendus (λ)

2.5035 - 0.6856

Forme (5 derniers, pts)

Marseille 3/15 · Montpellier 0/15

Accord avec le marché

Modèle aligné sur les cotes (divergence 0.0055).

Strengths — Marseille: att 1.19 / def 1.03 · Montpellier: att 0.47 / def 1.37

Recent form (last 5)

Marseille

LLLWL

M Montpellier

LLLLL

Market odds

football-data — 1.16 / 8.74 / 16.81

Likely scores

2-0 · 12.9%

3-0 · 10.8%

1-0 · 9.6%

2-1 · 8.8%

1-1 · 7.8%

Head-to-head

3Marseille

2draws

0Montpellier

5 meetings

Avg goals · 3.4

BTTS yes · 80%

Over 2.5 · 60%

Oct 20, 24Montpellier0-5Marseille

Feb 25, 24Marseille4-1Montpellier

Dec 20, 23Montpellier1-1Marseille

Mar 31, 23

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