Analysis Lorient – Toulouse (Ligue 1)

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Ligue 1 · April 28, 2024

Lorient

1:2

Toulouse

1X2 prediction

confidence 54/100

✓ correct

31%

27%

41%

1 31%X 27%2 41%

⚡ Value detected on 2 (edge +20.2% vs market)

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

BTTS yes

57%

Expected goals

1.1049 - 1.8115

More markets

Double chance

1X (home/draw)59%

12 (home/away)73%

X2 (draw/away)69%

Goals (Over/Under)

Over 1.580%

Over 2.556%

Over 3.533%

Clean sheet

Lorient16%

Toulouse33%

Why this prediction?

Attaque vs défense

Lorient attaque 0.83 face à une défense 0.95 ; Toulouse attaque 0.99 face à 1.42.

Buts attendus (λ)

1.1049 - 1.8115

Forme (5 derniers, pts)

Lorient 1/15 · Toulouse 8/15

Accord avec le marché

⚠ Divergence notable avec le marché (0.0362) — prudence.

Strengths — Lorient: att 0.83 / def 1.42 · Toulouse: att 0.99 / def 0.95

Recent form (last 5)

Lorient

DLLLL

Toulouse

LWDWD

Market odds

football-data — 2.46 / 3.5 / 2.98

Likely scores

1-1 · 11.9%

1-2 · 9.8%

0-2 · 8.9%

0-1 · 8.7%

0-0 · 6.5%

Head-to-head

0Lorient

2draws

1Toulouse

3 meetings

Avg goals · 2.3

BTTS yes · 67%

Over 2.5 · 33%

Dec 03, 23Toulouse1-1Lorient

Apr 23, 23Lorient0-1Toulouse

Aug 21, 22Toulouse2-2Lorient

ℹ️ H2H has weak real predictive power (small sample) — the model weights it lightly.

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