Occitania face Monaco in the International, April 03, 2010 — and the model calls it tight: 33% home, 34% draw, 33% away. Over their last five, Occitania collected 0/15 points to Monaco's 0/15. A tighter game is expected: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%, with BTTS at 50%. Remember: these are probabilities, not certainties — a draw is the lean, never a lock. 18+, gamble responsibly.